This project focuses on the modeling and simulation of the influence of infrastructure capacity limitations on air traffic. Effects of limitations in airside airport infrastructure as well as in airspace capacity in the airport vicinity on air traffic and fleet development are of particular interest. This work bases on previous work in the fields of airport capacity estimation as well as network structures and evolutionary fleet development modeling. Different scenarios for infrastructure growth are generated by means of scenario methods and operational mechanisms for mitigating infrastructural limitations are investigated in more detail.
The modeling approach bases on an in-house evolutionary fleet model, successfully utilized at the chair for many years. Constrained infrastructure capacities are introduced as a limitation to fleet development and, thus, lead to unaccommodated traffic demand at affected airports. The modeling includes two operational mechanisms from real airline practice to mitigate these limitations: the use of aircraft with larger passenger capacity and shifting of additional traffic demand to other unlimited airports. The latter case distinguishes between hub and O/D traffic. The final simulated network structure and fleet mix results from an optimization of available mitigation mechanisms toward minimum unaccommodated RPK. This modeling approach allows to quantitatively assess scenarios for the global influence of infrastructure constraints on the fleetmix at airports as well as on the development of Multi-Hub- and Multi-Airport-Systems. The effects of introducing new aircraft types to the fleet can, thus, be captured with more detail, facilitating the concept evaluation of novel aircraft designs within an overall system perspective.